IS THERE ANY NEED FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE?

Today's psychological science does study intuition but it is observed that our thinking memory and attitude operate at two levels conscious and unconscious.
There is a common feeling that psychology explains or informs what everyone is aware of. Some pace their faith in human intuitions.

For example, Prince Charles (2000) said that "buried deep within every one of us there is an instinctive heartfelt awareness that provides- if we allow it to – the most reliable guide".

The former president of America explained his decision to launch the Iraq War by saying that he is a gut player and he depends on instincts.

Today's psychological science does study intuition but it is observed that our thinking memory and attitude operate at two levels conscious and unconscious. But still, our intuitions are more likely to go wrong.

The three phenomena, hindsight bias, judgmental overconfidence, and even tendency to perceive patterns in random events illustrate why we cannot solely depend on intuition.



Location: Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

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LET US KNOW OVERCONFIDENCE

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Overconfidence We generally tend to think that we know more than we do. If someone asks us questions about the certainty of our answer we tend to be more confident than correct. The best example is the following anagram given by Richard Goranson (1978). He asked people to unscramble the alphabets: WREAT – WATER ETRYN – ENTRY GRABE – BARGE Now see how many seconds would you require to unscramble this alphabet. Did hindsight bias come in the way? Knowing answers make us overconfident. The solution would take only 10 seconds for us to answer while in reality, the problem solver requires 3 minutes. The question arises are we better at predicting social behaviors? Students show that this may not be always the case. Philip Turlock (1998,2005) collected more than 27000 expert predictions on world events such as the future of South Africa or whether Quebec would separate from Canada. He found that these predictions which experts made with 80% confidence on average were right less ...
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